Thursday is going to be stormy across the bluegrass state as severe weather is expected from Missouri all the way to New England. A warm front is lifting across the state tonight and will usher in above average temperatures and a lot of moisture. Temperatures will top out in the mid 90s but because of the high humidity the heat index will be well into the 100s.
Now for the fun part, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has an area of moderate risk for severe weather that extends from Southwest Ohio Northeast into New England. This was a day 2 moderate risk area, which isn't rare but it is not common for our area so this is a pretty high confidence forecast. When forecasting severe weather there are 4 main ingredients to look for wind shear, lift, instability, and moisture. All of these ingredients will be present tomorrow. We will see dew-points in the high 60s to low 70s, high CAPE values which is a measure of instability, moderate shear values, and finally lift from an approaching cold front. Put all of these together and we will see thunderstorms likely develop and form into a squall line in the afternoon with damaging winds being the main threat. The tornado threat looks minimal but there is a small chance of an isolated spin up with the best chance looking to be from Pennsylvania into New England. I expect a line of storms to be in the Northern Kentucky/Cincinnati area late afternoon early evening (4-6pm) (go easy on me if I miss the timing because it is one of the hardest things to forecast!). I'll go on and apologize because I am horrible at spelling/grammar so I'm sure there are some mistakes I missed!
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