First Moderate Risk in 320 days

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Ohio Valley under a moderate risk for severe weather Wednesday evening into Thursday.

  

 We are under a 45% hatched area. So what does this all mean?

A moderate risk is not rare for the Ohio Valley, but it is not common. This is the first moderate risk for our area in 320 days. The storm prediction center's probability is the probability of one or more severe weather events occurring within 25 miles of any point. The hatched area means a 10% chance or greater of significant severe weather occurring. Significant severe weather is defined as hail 2 inches in diameter or larger, winds 75 MPH (65 knots) or stronger, a tornado of strength EF2 or stronger. 

I'll try to not get too technical here. Low pressure is going to move out of the Mississippi Valley tomorrow. A warm front will move north into northern Ohio and some storm might pop up along that. We will be in the warm sector and there is a slight chance for a pop up storms but we should remained capped. The strong storms are going to form in front of a cold front and will likely turn into a squall line. Damaging winds will be the main threat but a tornado can not be ruled out. I expect to see a few tornado warnings issued tomorrow from rotation on radar, but not a tornado breakout.

The models are in pretty good agreement that the dynamics are there for strong storms. What they don't agree on, is timing. This should be a Wednesday evening into Thursday morning event. We should get a better idea of timing tomorrow. 

To summarize, keep an eye on the weather tomorrow but it is nothing to be scared about. It should be an evening into early morning event with damaging winds being the main threat. I'll try to give some updates tomorrow.

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