Another Round of Severe Weather for the Area 5/21/14

The Storm Prediction Center has us in a high-end 30% slight risk for severe weather for tomorrow (5/21/14). Remember this means there is a 30% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

For severe weather we look for 4 main ingredients or SLIM. Shear, Lift, Instability, and Moisture. The setup for tomorrow will not be lacking moisture. The models are forecasting dew points (amount of moisture in the air) into the 70s. Honestly that is probably too high because dew points in the 70s are REALLY high even for summer (which we haven't hit yet) but dew points in the lower to mid 60s are likely and will provide ample energy for the storms.

The map above is a GFS run that shows instability (CAPE) for our area tomorrow. CAPE is often over estimated in the models. This run is showing values of 3000 J/kg for us, which is more than enough for some strong updrafts in the storms tomorrow.

Finally for shear. The forecasted skew-T seen above shows some good speed shear (changes in wind speed with height) but we don't see the directional shear (changes in wind direction with height) that we would need for supercell and tornado development. Also the freezing level (level where temperature = 0 degrees C) is around 600 mbs. Because of the high CAPE values and semi-low freezing layer we could see some hail tomorrow from these storms.

To sum it up. This will be a Wednesday evening, to late evening event. Strong winds and hail are the main threats with the tornado threat looking small.

Tornado Watch for the Area

The Storm Prediction Center has a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather for our area today. For this particular case there is a 15% chance of damaging winds and damaging hail occurring within 25 miles of any point within the slight risk area. Also there is a 5% chance of a tornado occurring within 25 miles in the risk area. Two different Tornado Watches have been issued for the Ohio Valley. The first watch, for central Kentucky, is until 8pm. The second watch, for Northern Ky extending into most of Ohio is until 9pm. A major severe weather outbreak IS NOT expected today but conditions are right for strong to severe storms to form with damaging winds, large hail, and ISOLATED tornados. Meteorologist tend to want to "cry wolf" or overstate the threat of severe weather which I try not to do. So to sum it up, slight risk of severe weather today with the main threat being damaging winds but an isolated tornado is possible. We have two different watches over our area until 8pm and 9pm and if you are put under a warning be smart and take appropriate action.

Watch 1

Watch 2 

Why is There a Temperature Difference Across the State?

        So far this week Maysville has been experiencing mild temperatures with highs in the low to mid 70s, while most of Kentucky has seen highs in the 80s. So why is that? The answer to that is actually quite simple, there is a stationary front located across Northern Kentucky and Southern Ohio/Indiana. A front is nothing more than a boundary between two different air masses. To the north of the stationary front we see cooler temperatures, while to the south of it we see warmer, and typically more humid conditions (but that isn't the case with this front). I got the picture below from the Kentucky Mesonet yesterday and nerded out because of how clear the front was from the surface observations.
         Two main ways to locate a front are by finding the temperature gradient and the change of wind speed and direction. The top part of the image shows the surface temperatures across the state, while the bottom shows the wind speed and direction. We can see temperatures in the high 70s above the line and temperatures in the low to mid 80s below it. The front is even more recognizable by the change in wind direction and speed. To the south of the front, where there is warm air advection, we see southerly flow while to the north we see northerly flow.

So what does this stationary front mean for our weather over the next few days? For Tuesday we will see the same sunny and mild conditions we saw on Monday. The front will lift north as a warm front Wednesday and temperatures will climb into the mid 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. These warmer temperatures wont last for long as a cold front sweeps through the area this weekend, which means the return of rain and temperatures back down into the 70s. 

First Moderate Risk in 320 days

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Ohio Valley under a moderate risk for severe weather Wednesday evening into Thursday.

  

 We are under a 45% hatched area. So what does this all mean?

A moderate risk is not rare for the Ohio Valley, but it is not common. This is the first moderate risk for our area in 320 days. The storm prediction center's probability is the probability of one or more severe weather events occurring within 25 miles of any point. The hatched area means a 10% chance or greater of significant severe weather occurring. Significant severe weather is defined as hail 2 inches in diameter or larger, winds 75 MPH (65 knots) or stronger, a tornado of strength EF2 or stronger. 

I'll try to not get too technical here. Low pressure is going to move out of the Mississippi Valley tomorrow. A warm front will move north into northern Ohio and some storm might pop up along that. We will be in the warm sector and there is a slight chance for a pop up storms but we should remained capped. The strong storms are going to form in front of a cold front and will likely turn into a squall line. Damaging winds will be the main threat but a tornado can not be ruled out. I expect to see a few tornado warnings issued tomorrow from rotation on radar, but not a tornado breakout.

The models are in pretty good agreement that the dynamics are there for strong storms. What they don't agree on, is timing. This should be a Wednesday evening into Thursday morning event. We should get a better idea of timing tomorrow. 

To summarize, keep an eye on the weather tomorrow but it is nothing to be scared about. It should be an evening into early morning event with damaging winds being the main threat. I'll try to give some updates tomorrow.

You can follow me on twitter where I give weather updates https://twitter.com/ClintKYwx

Severe Storms Thursday

Hello everyone. I've found out that I cannot usually fit everything I want to say about the weather into 140 characters on twitter so I've decided to start a blog.

Thursday is going to be stormy across the bluegrass state as severe weather is expected from Missouri all the way to New England. A warm front is lifting across the state tonight and will usher in above average temperatures and a lot of moisture. Temperatures will top out in the mid 90s but because of the high humidity the heat index will be well into the 100s.

Now for the fun part, the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has an area of moderate risk for severe weather that extends from Southwest Ohio Northeast into New England. This was a day 2 moderate risk area, which isn't rare but it is not common for our area so this is a pretty high confidence forecast. When forecasting severe weather there are 4 main ingredients to look for wind shear, lift, instability, and moisture. All of these ingredients will be present tomorrow. We will see dew-points in the high 60s to low 70s, high CAPE values which is a measure of instability, moderate shear values, and finally lift from an approaching cold front. Put all of these together and we will see thunderstorms likely develop and form into a squall line in the afternoon with damaging winds being the main threat. The tornado threat looks minimal but there is a small chance of an isolated spin up with the best chance looking to be from Pennsylvania into New England. I expect a line of storms to be in the Northern Kentucky/Cincinnati area late afternoon early evening (4-6pm) (go easy on me if I miss the timing because it is one of the hardest things to forecast!).

I'll go on and apologize because I am horrible at spelling/grammar so I'm sure there are some mistakes I missed!